It's been a few months now since the proposed European Constitution went down in a resounding no vote: and I think generally that it's being seen as a second chance for Europe, rather than wedge which will drive them apart. There are some rumblings over the common currency, for sure (the Italians especially want to blame their economic problems on it, ha!), but I do not believe that the no vote has actually set the European Dream back.

Instead, it got tens of millions of people involved and reading about it - and that is probably the best thing that can happen to a democracy. I believe than the second attempt at a European Constitution is likely to be considerably better: shorter, more democratic, more cultural-preserving, more forward looking, etc.

Here's some detail on how I see Europe evolving over the next 25 years or so:

1) Remaining economically integrated. Single currency remains, some more homogenizing of (product, technical) standards for the benefit of the common market.

2) Slow but steady economic growth, overall. Europe will not give up many of it's labour laws, consumer protection laws, environmental laws, etc. and that simply means slower economic growth than places which are willing to throw everything to the wind. I think it's a wise trade off for a place which has so much culture and history, and so little land...

3) Some hard economic times for Italy and Germany. Italy has dug itself a big hole, while Germany is still struggling with the integration of East Germany.

4) Turkey is NOT admitted to the EU. This will shatter some idealism, but it's already clear that Europe is more about conservation than liberalism, and as such more and more lines will be drawn. Immigration of non-westerners will also be slowly cut-off, and efforts at integration will increase. Either you'll become actually French in character or you won't live in France.

5) Conversely, the EU will be a leader in biomedicine, anti-aging, and other "internal" technologies. Without immigration, the only way for Europe to keep it's population stable is to keep everyone alive. From what I know of older Europeans, they have no problem with technology and given the lack of children, I don't think they will have any difficulty justifying longer personal lifespans. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see several of the governments in Europe launching national programs for anti-aging research - particularly the scandinavian countries. Europeans already have slightly longer lifespans than Americans, and that gap will grow exponentially unless the US changes course soon.

6) Much better handling of peak-oil and long-term sustainability than the US or China. Europe is already well in the lead on this and their lead grows by the day. Americans claim that much of the research for this stuff is done here, but even if that's true, the peak-oil issue is more about deployed infrastructure and the habits and lifestyles of citizens than it is about technology. It's pretty clear to me that America's national bird is rapidly becoming an ostrich :-(

At any rate, Europe is at least doing bold good things and getting people involved, which is more than I can say for Canada and the US.